Investors warned to remain cautious this week: experts

Investors warned to remain cautious this week: experts

Amid ongoing market volatility, investors should uphold disciplined investment strategies and diligently manage risks.

Traders work in a trading room of a securities firm. — VNA/VNS Photo

Việt Nam’s stock market endured a volatile week as benchmark indices swung sharply and investors remained wary of global risks, with trading activity thinning as many chose to stay on the sidelines.

Investor sentiment remains cautious following substantial fluctuations in the market, with liquidity remaining below the average of the past 20 sessions as external risks continue to be closely monitored.

On the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed the week at 1,696.24 points while the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) ended at 245.84 points.

For the week, the former lost 4.05 per cent and the latter dropped 3.08 per cent.

The week began with a rough start. On March 9, the VN-Index plummeted by more than 115 points, a record decline that pushed the benchmark into the low 1,650 range. The sharp sell-off was driven by widespread panic among investors, particularly amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The military conflict raised fears of potential disruptions to global energy supplies, compounding the impact of rising oil prices which further fuelled financial market sell-offs including in Việt Nam.

Following the steep initial drop, buying activity gradually returned as some investors sought to capitalise on lower prices in select promising stocks, helping the VN-Index recover about 75 points over the following two sessions and briefly approach the 1,730 mark.

However, the rebound proved fragile as liquidity fell sharply and profit-taking pressure increased once the index rose to higher price levels.

Liquidity declined significantly on both main exchanges. Total market transaction value on HoSE reached nearly VNĐ167 trillion (US$6.3 billion), down 19.8 per cent from the previous week.

Similarly liquidity on HNX slipped 23.8 per cent to more than VNĐ12 trillion.

A notable development during the week was the return of foreign capital. Although foreign investors net sold during most sessions, strong buying at certain points resulted in a net purchase of VNĐ1.2 trillion across the market, including nearly VNĐ1.3 trillion on HoSE compared with net sales of VNĐ37 billion on HNX.

According to Vũ Thị Quỳnh Trang, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, the market experienced considerable fluctuations during the week, primarily influenced by a shock from the energy sector, particularly with international oil prices swelling to around $120 per barrel, creating significant pressure across global financial markets including Việt Nam.

Trang expected that the VN-Index may revisit a second bottom before establishing a clearer recovery signal, with the 1,650-point mark seen as a key support level.

According to Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), the current total market capitalisation stands at about $389 billion, equivalent to roughly 76 per cent of the projected GDP for 2025. While the valuation is considered reasonable, it has yet to offer sufficient attraction to draw large capital inflows back into the market.

Experts advise that amid continued volatility investors should maintain disciplined strategies and carefully manage risks. They recommend keeping a sensible cash allocation, limiting the use of high leverage during uncertain market trends and focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and stable growth prospects.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) suggests investors closely monitor market movements to take advantage of intraday fluctuations, particularly in stocks attracting capital and holding reliable support levels.

Meanwhile, technical analysis from Vietcap Securities indicates the VN-Index could reach the 1,745–1,750 point range if the technical rebound continues.

However, analysts warn there is a significant risk of a downward reversal at that level, with the next support zone projected around 1,600–1,630 points as bearish signals become more evident in major sectors such as banking, real estate and securities.

Looking ahead, the market’s focus will shift to the upcoming meeting of the FTSE Russell Policy Advisory Council scheduled for March 19, which will assess the potential upgrade of Việt Nam’s stock market status.

Additionally, the country is entering a sensitive period following the National Assembly and people's councils deputies elections, which are expected to have positive psychological effects by easing investor concerns amid geopolitical uncertainties. 

Bizhub