Year-end shopping season faces rising uncertainty

Year-end shopping season faces rising uncertainty

Vietnam’s year-end shopping season is shaping up to be more uncertain as consumers reassess spending priorities ahead of the Lunar New Year.

As the country enters the peak shopping period ahead of Lunar New Year 2026, shoppers are grappling with rising costs and shifting priorities, prompting brands to rethink how they capture demand. According to Worldpanel by Numerator, a consumer insights and data analytics company, spending power for the coming holiday season is expected to be less predictable than in previous years, reflecting greater year-round volatility in consumer sentiment and heightened sensitivity to socioeconomic conditions and households’ perceived financial positions at year-end.

Worldpanel noted that both external and internal pressures have increased consumers’ sensitivity to news and economic signals, causing sentiment to fluctuate more sharply over shorter periods. This heightened volatility is making purchasing decisions more reactive, complicating demand forecasting for brands during the year-end and Lunar New Year shopping season.

As of the third quarter of 2025, concerns about household income remained elevated compared to a year earlier, compounded by rising anxieties over health, food safety, and unusual late-year typhoon patterns. While the Consumer Price Index remains under control, it has reached a 10-year-high, creating a new reality in which consumers are spending more selectively and deliberately.

Against this backdrop, manufacturers and retailers face a narrower margin for error during the Tet period, with success increasingly dependent on closely tracking shifts in consumer sentiment and rapidly adjusting messaging and product offerings to align with evolving priorities.

Health, self-care, and quality of life have also emerged as key year-end themes, even as households remain under pressure from rising costs. This dynamic is forcing brands to navigate a more delicate price–quality equation. Consumers are acutely aware of budget constraints and inflationary pressures, yet continue to prioritise quality, product safety, and authenticity. Rather than trading down, many expect any price premium to be clearly justified by superior quality, credible health benefits, or meaningful gains in convenience and time savings.

Worldpanel by Numerator noted that Lunar New Year is no longer a single-peak retail event centred on physical stores, but a multiphase sales season in which online channels play a decisive role in early stockpiling. With e-commerce now accounting for almost the same value share as hypermarkets and supermarkets, brands are increasingly required to treat online platforms as a core driver of year-end growth rather than a supplementary channel.

VIR