Market heads towards 2,000 point-level in 2026

Market heads towards 2,000 point-level in 2026

The market witnessed dramatic developments last week, highlighted by the benchmark VN-Index's unpredictable performance.

Traders work at a trading office of a securities firm in Hà Nội. — Photo bnews.vn

The year 2025 stands out as the most remarkable for growth in the history of Việt Nam's stock market, positioning the country among the highest-performing equity markets globally.

As investors look ahead to 2026, experts anticipate continued strong performance, albeit with significant sector differentiation.

The market saw dramatic developments last week, highlighted by the benchmark VN-Index’s unpredictable performance. On December 25, the index surged beyond historical levels but quickly reversed, culminating in a sharp decline during the closing session.

Analyst Nguyễn Thái Học from Pinetree Securities attributed the volatility primarily to selling pressure from stocks associated with Vingroup, specifically Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM) and Vincom Retail (VRE), following the announcement of Vingroup’s withdrawal from the North-South high-speed railway project.

The unexpected news led the VN-Index to lose more than 60 points from its peak.

Trading continued on December 26 with persistent selling pressure, making future trends harder to predict. The VN-Index quickly filled the gap around the 1,704–1,719 point range, ending the day down 42 points.

Học said the partial recovery was driven by some stocks escaping their floor price, combined with positive bounces in sectors such as oil and steel. However, he cautioned that buying interest remained insufficient to confirm a steady recovery.

In the final trading day of the year 2025, the market's benchmark VN-Index posted strong recoveries from previous week's correction. Despite some fluctuations in the morning trade, it still ended the year at 1,784.49 points, up nearly 17.6 points. This was the highest close since Việt Nam's market operated. 

Despite short-term fluctuations fuelling investor anxiety, historical patterns point to a more optimistic long-term outlook.

Analysts from Maybank Securities note that the Vietnamese stock market traditionally sees positive momentum in January, averaging returns of around 4.4 per cent, though awareness of capitalisation group disparities is crucial for maximising profits.

Large-cap stocks generally move in step with market indices and show significant early-year growth. Mid-cap stocks tend to start slowly in January before posting sharp gains by February, while small-cap stocks are often speculative, remaining flat in January before accelerating in later months.

According to Vietcap Securities, the VN-Index could potentially reach 2,033 points in 2026, representing an approximate 17 per cent increase from the previous year.

The primary drivers for this optimistic scenario are expected to be sustained high corporate profit growth and attractive market valuations.

VPBankS Research's 'Investment Outlook 2026' report indicates that macro-economic stability is projected to improve in thisyear. The quality of bad debts within the banking system has also seen improvement over the first nine months of 2025, sending positive signals about market prospects for 2026.

VPBankS predicts a target for the VN-Index of 2,087 points by the end of 2026, based on a targeted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.5 times and an expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14.4 per cent year-on-year.

Investors are focused on VN-Index valuation levels, which, as of December 25, traded at a P/E ratio of 15.8, 16 per cent above the three-year average.

However, a report from MB Securities (MBS) offers a different perspective: excluding Vin stocks, the P/E ratio drops to 13.5, with a 2025 average of 12.2.

MBS said that any growth in the VN-Index, excluding Vingroup’s influence, will mainly come from core profit growth rather than inflated valuations.

They recommend a cautious P/E valuation range of 12.5–13 for 2026, maintaining a positive outlook for the first half, with the VN-Index potentially reaching 1,860 points.

Nevertheless, MBS anticipates mounting pressures in the second half of the year, stemming from new interest rate environments and their impact on market liquidity.

The cautious stance reflects the gradual effect of new rates on stock market liquidity. Additionally, some speculative capital is expected to return to the production sector as the real economy shows clear signs of recovery.

MBS expects the VN-Index to close at 1,670–1,750 points by the end of 2026, based on projected profit growth of 16–17 per cent for listed companies. 

Bizhub