HSBC forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to hit 6.7 per cent in 2026

HSBC forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to hit 6.7 per cent in 2026

HSBC has said it expects Vietnam's GDP growth to hit 6.7 per cent this year, down from an 8 per cent expansion last year.

While 2025 was a rollercoaster year for Vietnam, it defied tariff concerns with yearly growth as high as 8 per cent, in line with HSBC'sexpectations. This will easily place Vietnam as the growth champion in Asia. Although Vietnam was widely expected to be one of the economies with high tariff risks, its trade ballooned to a record high instead. Its trade surplus also remains sizeable. Despite facing a 20 per cent headline tariff from the US, Vietnam captured even more market share for certain goods, such as footwear, textiles, and consumer electronics.

Entering 2026, many may wonder how sustainable Vietnam's trade is, and when the trade pay-back will arrive. Vietnam is no exception to a potential global trade pull-back, but HSBC believes its exports of the 'right' products (ie electronics) amid AI-driven demand and widening market share in the US are likely to shield it from some trade headwinds. In addition, HSBC expects the emphasis on infrastructure development to continue in the new year, accelerating key mega projects and lifting growth. Overall, Vietnam's GDP growth is expected to hit 6.7 per cent in 2026.

Vietnam will start 2026 with a key political event. The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), which is scheduled to take place from January 19-25. The National Congress, held every five years, will choose the country's new leadership and set socioeconomic goals for the next five to 10 years.

All eyes will be on who the next 'five pillars' will be, specifically who will fill the top five positions: Party General Secretary, state president, prime minister (PM), chair of the National Assembly and standing member of the Secretariat. The last position was added to the top leadership line up only last September, marking a shift from 'four pillars' to 'five pillars'.

That said, regardless of the outcome of the leadership reshuffle, economic policy is widely expected to be consistent and unlikely to change significantly.

In each congress session, key economic goals, including GDP growth and GDP per capita for the next five years will be revealed. Vietnam's 2021-25 average GDP growth reached 6.2 per cent, missing its target of 6.5-7 per cent growth set in the five-year socioeconomic development plan for the period, but this was due only to the slow growth in the pandemic-hit 2021. Over the medium term, Vietnam is striving to become an upper-middle income country by 2030 and ultimately a high-income one by 2045.

In November 2025, a series of targets for 2026 were approved by the National Assembly, providing a peak of what to expect for the 2026-30 period. The 2026 growth target is set at “at least 10 per cent” with GDP per capita of $5,400-5,500. Note that the double-digit growth target is on top of the high GDP growth of 8 per cent last year, requiring a hard push to achieve broad-based growth, including trade outperformance, significant investments, and strong consumption.

What reforms will be introduced to support growth are also key to watch. Vietnam has pushed for a series of reforms, with the reorganisation of state agencies and the merging of provinces and cities being the main highlights of 2025, to reduce hurdles and streamline administrative processes.

VIR