Foreign funds accumulate consumer stocks in Vietnam

Foreign funds accumulate consumer stocks in Vietnam

Foreign investors recorded several net buying sessions over the past fortnight in Vietnam, including two sessions with net inflows of more than $24 million each, while consumer stocks have emerged as a key focus for overseas funds.

According to Yuanta Vietnam Securities, the pace of foreign net selling has narrowed, with several stocks attracting strong inflows. Notably, shares of Vietnam Dairy Products (VNM) saw net purchases worth $23.5 million in the week from November 24–28. In the trading session on December 2 alone, foreign investors net bought $4.5 million worth.

SABECO has outlined an improved outlook for 2026

With exchange rate pressures easing and global capital flows showing signs of stabilisation ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, foreign net selling is expected to continue narrowing.

Another consumer stock attracting strong foreign demand is Saigon Beer–Alcohol–Beverage Corporation (SABECO). In the December 2 session, it rose above $2.10 per share, with buy orders at the ceiling price exceeding one million shares.

In its Q4 exchange-traded fund (ETF) portfolio review, Yuanta estimated that the VanEck Vietnam ETF would purchase approximately 5.6 million SABECO shares, the second-largest allocation in the portfolio.

Entering December, consumer stocks in the VN30 index recorded positive momentum. Saigon–Hanoi Securities noted a strong breakout in the consumer sector under the combined influence of foreign inflows and expectations of solid consumption growth in late 2025 and throughout 2026.

Nguyen The Minh, director of retail research and client development at Yuanta Securities, said consumer manufacturing stocks have underperformed for the past three years, with price-to-earnings ratios now below the five-year average, creating attractive valuations.

“Four drivers are underpinning the sector’s outlook,” said Minh. “Firstly, GDP is forecast to grow 8.3–8.5 per cent in 2025. Secondly, the government is boosting consumption through VAT reductions and tax extensions. Thirdly, rising household incomes are expected to lift purchasing power. Fourthly, a low-interest-rate environment is reducing capital costs and improving profit margins.”

Phu Hung Securities viewed VNM and SABECO as rare bright spots due to export expansion, cost optimisation, and one-off income contributions. VNM is particularly favoured for a recovery in earnings in 2026 as input costs decline.

For SABECO, Q4 revenue is expected to rise as demand enters the peak consumption season for year-end holidays and Lunar New Year. DSC Securities said raw material prices such as hops, malt and aluminium remained subdued from 2024 through mid-2025, allowing the company to maintain low-cost inventories. Although aluminium prices are showing signs of recovery, DSC expects gross margins to remain resilient in Q4 due to early price-locking arrangements.

Excise tax adjustments have also become more moderate. The highest tax rate will reach 90 per cent by 2031, increasing by 5 per cent per year from 2027, instead of climbing to 100 per cent by 2030 as initially proposed.

The delayed tax increase has improved SABECO’s outlook for 2026, especially as consumption is expected to benefit from a late Lunar New Year period and several major sporting events. Although higher excise taxes may put pressure on demand, they also create room for mid-tier beer products – SABECO’s core segment – to improve competitiveness.

SSI Securities forecast SABECO’s 2025 revenue at $1.05 billion and net profit at $182 million. In 2026, revenue is projected to reach $1.1 billion (up 2 per cent on-year) and net profit $184 million (up 2 per cent), driven by recovering demand and easing cost pressures.

For Vinamilk, Phu Hung Securities said the company is positioned to return to earnings growth thanks to stable output and falling prices of milk powder and sugar.

Mirae Asset expects dairy margins to recover in Q4 as lower raw material prices gradually feed into production costs. With whole milk powder and skimmed milk powder prices down 8–10 per cent from the May 2025 peak, leading producers are expected to optimise costs, with improvements becoming more pronounced in H1/2026.

From Q1 next year, adjustments to personal income tax thresholds are also expected to support domestic consumption, especially for essential goods such as dairy products and food. Vinamilk is well-placed to benefit through its expanded range of nutritional products, plant-based milk, and elderly-focused formulas.

Export growth across Asia, Africa, and Cambodia remains another key driver. In particular, official export approval to Cambodia is expected to support double-digit overseas revenue growth next year.

Mirae Asset forecasts Vinamilk’s 2026 revenue at $2.64 billion (up 4 per cent) and net profit at $394 million (up 6 per cent), driven by 1 per cent growth in the domestic market and 15 per cent overseas growth. Gross margin is projected to improve to 41.7 per cent as cost pressures ease.

VIR