Seafood exporters urged to prepare for expected downturn in 2026

Seafood exporters urged to prepare for expected downturn in 2026

After a bright year with export revenue on track to reach $10 billion in 2025, Vietnam’s seafood industry is forecast to face multiple headwinds from 2026 onwards.

Photo: Le Toan

According to the latest data from the General Department of Customs, as of September 15, the country’s total export turnover exceeded $325 billion, up 15.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. Seafood alone accounted for almost $7.6 billion, marking a 13.5 per cent increase. This performance underscores the possibility of the sector achieving the $10 billion milestone by year-end.

Key export products have contributed to this robust growth. Shrimp remained the mainstay with revenue of close to $3 billion, up nearly 23 per cent, while lobster continued to shine as a star performer, reaching $536 million, an impressive surge of almost 194 per cent. Basa fish exports recovered with a value of just over $1.4 billion, up 9.7 per cent. Meanwhile, molluscs, including squid, octopus, and bivalves, also grew more than 20 per cent, reaching almost $650 million. By contrast, tuna posted a slight decline of 2.3 per cent, reflecting instability in both supply and market demand.

Export markets also revealed dynamic shifts. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership led the way with over $2 billion, accounting for more than 27 per cent of total seafood exports. China and Hong Kong recorded the sharpest growth, up nearly 39 per cent to $1.56 billion. The United States retained third position with $1.25 billion, an 8.7 per cent increase and equivalent to 17 per cent of total exports.

This momentum is mirrored in the business results of leading enterprises. Vinh Hoan Corporation reported a 53.7 per cent jump in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, with its gross margin improving from 14.7 per cent to 19.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Minh Phu Seafood Corporation achieved a near 330 per cent surge in profit after tax in the same quarter, reaching $165 billion, the highest in 10 quarters thanks to a strategic focus on value-added products.

Despite these record-breaking figures, the outlook for 2026 is far less optimistic. According to Le Hang, deputy secretary general of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, the sector will soon face significant challenges as a series of trade barriers are set to take effect, particularly in the US.

"A 20 per cent countervailing duty makes Vietnamese seafood less competitive compared to rivals from Thailand, Indonesia, or Ecuador. The industry also faces the risk of high anti-dumping tariffs on shrimp under the forthcoming POR19 review," she said

More critically, from January 1, 2026, the US will ban imports from 12 Vietnamese fisheries not recognised as equivalent under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), potentially resulting in an annual revenue loss of more than $500 million. Meanwhile, the EU’s yellow card on illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing remains unresolved, while new international regulations on minimum tuna size and restrictions on raw material mixing add further compliance pressure.

Analysts predict that American importers will accelerate orders through mid-November 2025 to 'front-run' these trade barriers. As a result, export growth may surge in September and October. However, from late November onwards, shipments are expected to stagnate, paving the way for a difficult period in the first half of 2026.

In response, many Vietnamese seafood companies are exploring market diversification towards Asia, the Middle East, and South America. However, these strategies are long term, and the US continues to be Vietnam’s most important market. Without breakthroughs in tackling anti-dumping duties and the MMPA restrictions, an export decline in 2026 appears inevitable.

Experts suggest three urgent priorities for the sector: accelerating efforts to remove the EU’s IUU yellow card, strengthening legal and policy advocacy in the US, and investing in transparent, traceable supply chains that comply with stricter global standards.

"While Vietnam’s seafood exports are on course to reach the historic milestone of $10 billion in 2025, behind this growth lies a darker prospect. Without effective solutions, the industry may have to trade one year of strong growth for another year of daunting challenges," said Hang.

VIR