VN-Index expected to fluctuate around 1,600–1,650 points: expert

VN-Index expected to fluctuate around 1,600–1,650 points: expert

Although the stock market faced heavy selling pressure in the final session of the week, the VN-Index still managed to gain 0.95 per cent, closing the week at 1,645.47 points and remaining above the psychological threshold of 1,600 points.

Investors monitor the stock market at MB Securities. — Photo baodautu.vn

Analysts forecast that the stock market is likely to continue oscillating between 1,600 and 1,650 points this week, with strong volatility expected as profit-taking pressure persists and foreign investors maintain their net selling trend.

However, domestic cash flow is expected to provide support, leaving room for the VN-Index to form a new upward wave in the weeks to come.

Head of analysis at Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS) Phan Tấn Nhật noted that the VN-Index is signalling a short-term peak after four months of continuous strong gains.

“A corrective phase is necessary for the market to rebalance. The VN-Index may retreat to test the support zone at 1,570–1,580 points before finding fresh momentum,” Nhật said.

Market expert at Pinetree Securities Nguyễn Thái Học agreed, remarking that a correction of 5 per cent or more should not be considered negative, but rather an opportunity for consolidation.

He projected that this week, mid- and small-cap stocks, along with blue chips that have yet to rise significantly, could perform better, while banks and stocks that have rallied rapidly will likely face further corrective pressure.

In the longer term, investment funds remain optimistic. Pyn Elite Fund stressed that 2025 could be a "big year" for the Vietnamese stock market, forecasting corporate earnings growth of 32 per cent in 2025 and 19 per cent in 2026. Expectations that FTSE will upgrade Việt Nam to emerging market status in October are also seen as a key catalyst for attracting additional foreign capital.

During the trading week of August 18–22, the VN-Index still managed to add 0.95 per cent, closing at 1,645.47 points, above the key psychological threshold of 1,600 points.

The VN30 Index rose 1.73 per cent to 1,814.02 points. Liquidity was exceptionally strong, with total matched orders on HoSE reaching VNĐ282 trillion (US$10.7 billion), averaging nearly 1.9 billion shares per session.

Market breadth was largely negative as multiple sectors came under selling pressure, including seafood, steel, fertilisers, technology, securities and real estate. In contrast, only the banking and oil and gas groups retained gains.

Notably, foreign investors continued their aggressive withdrawals, offloading more than VNĐ7.8 trillion across the market. The heaviest net sold stocks included Hòa Phát Group (HPG) with VNĐ1.58 trillion, VPBank (VPB) with VNĐ1.18 trillion, FPT with VNĐ587 billion and Mobile World (MWG) with VNĐ401 billion, alongside other large cap stocks like GEX, CTG, VIC and SHB.

According to Dragon Capital, the recent wave of foreign net selling largely reflects profit-taking after strong buying in July, as well as a temporary capital shift towards developed markets. Nonetheless, the fund noted that this capital is expected to return soon, especially as Việt Nam’s upgrade prospects and domestic growth outlook remain robust. 

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