Việt Nam H2 growth may top 8% on public spending, private investment surge

Việt Nam H2 growth may top 8% on public spending, private investment surge

Việt Nam’s economy may expand more than 8 per cent in the second half of the year, fuelled by accelerating public investment, resilient foreign capital, and a potential rebound in private sector spending, according to a new report by the HCM City University of Banking (HUB).

Foreign tourists at the Saigon Central Post Office located in HCM City, Việt Nam’s economic powerhouse. The country’s economy may grow more than 8 per cent in the second half of the year. — VNS Photo Bồ Xuân Hiệp

Led by Associate Professor Dr. Lê Hoàng Anh, the university’s macro-economic outlook forecasts robust momentum following second-quarter GDP growth of 7.96 per cent. With continued quarterly acceleration, GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters could exceed 8 per cent, the report said.

“The full-year growth target of 8 per cent is achievable,” Anh noted, citing analysis based on econometric models, machine learning, and macro-microeconomic trends.

Public investment is seen as the key growth driver, with about 65 per cent of this year’s capital budget still to be disbursed, which is expected to significantly boost manufacturing and services.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains stable, underpinned by Việt Nam’s geopolitical positioning, reform momentum, and expanding network of free trade agreements.

Private investment is forecast to strengthen in the second half, driven by tax and credit incentives, improved business confidence, and capital inflows into high-tech, digital transformation, and renewable energy.

Inflation remains under control, while credit growth is projected to reach 16 per cent by year-end.

Despite this optimistic outlook, the report warns of lingering risks, including global trade volatility, geopolitical tensions, and rising protectionism that could impact exports. Domestic consumer demand also remains subdued.

To sustain growth momentum, the HUB team recommends accelerating administrative reforms, improving access to finance and technology, and supporting private sector development through business clusters and streamlined regulations.

Maintaining exchange rate stability will be critical in the months ahead, the report said, noting that the đồng depreciated by 2 per cent against the US dollar in the first half. 

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