Việt Nam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast raised to 7 per cent, highest in ASEAN+3: AMRO

Jul 25th at 08:05

25-07-2025 08:05:23+07:00

This makes Việt Nam the fastest-growing economy among the ASEAN+3 group, which includes the ten ASEAN countries along with China, Japan and South Korea.

Containers being unloaded at SOWATCO Long Bình Port, Thủ Đức City. AMRO has revised its 2025 growth forecast for Việt Nam’s economy up to 7 per cent, from the 6.5 per cent projected in April. — VNA/VNS Photo Hồng Đạt

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised upward its 2025 growth forecast for Việt Nam’s economy to 7 per cent from the 6.5 per cent projected in April, according to its latest quarterly update released on Wednesday.

This makes Việt Nam the fastest-growing economy among the ASEAN+3 group, which includes the ten ASEAN countries along with China, Japan and South Korea.

Speaking at a press briefing the same day, AMRO Chief Economist Dong He explained that the revision reflects Việt Nam’s much stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025.

Việt Nam’s GDP grew by 7.52 per cent in the first six months of the year, continuing the strong momentum seen in 2024, when the country recorded a growth rate of 7.09 per cent.

Despite ongoing global tariff tensions and subdued external demand, Việt Nam has maintained macro-economic stability and reaffirmed its position as one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic and resilient economies.

However, Dong He warned that rising tariffs from the US could pose downside risks to the country’s outlook.

He noted that Việt Nam and Cambodia are among the most exposed to US tariffs, as the US remains the largest export market for both economies. While Cambodia’s exports are heavily focused on garments, footwear and travel goods, Việt Nam has a more diversified export portfolio. Still, shipments to the US account for around 30 per cent of Việt Nam’s total exports.

Given this high exposure, Dong He said Việt Nam could face spillover effects, where weaker external demand may affect domestic consumption and investment. Nonetheless, he highlighted that Việt Nam retains policy space to cushion any potential economic shocks.

“Looking beyond the short term, I believe it’s even more crucial for Việt Nam to deepen its integration with regional economies. This includes attracting more foreign direct investment (FDI) and upgrading its product structure,” he said.

He also pointed to the Government’s ongoing reform efforts – particularly those aimed at improving the investment climate and upgrading infrastructure – as key steps towards enhancing the country’s long-term growth potential.

For 2026, AMRO also revised Việt Nam’s growth forecast upward to 6.5 per cent, from 6.2 per cent previously. Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.4 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026.

In contrast to Việt Nam’s upward trajectory, the broader ASEAN+3 region is expected to grow at a slower pace – 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026 – due to rising external uncertainties and the continued impact of US protectionist measures. These figures are both down from AMRO’s April forecasts.

If tariffs continue to rise, AMRO warned that global trade flows could be significantly disrupted. Other downside risks include tighter financial conditions and volatile commodity prices, driven by geopolitical tensions.

For ASEAN, the region is forecast to expand by 4.4 per cent in 2025. China is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent, while Japan and South Korea are each projected to see growth of just 0.7 per cent.

He stressed that the diversity of the ASEAN+3 region in terms of development levels, resources and economic strengths remains a major asset.

“By working together, we can turn challenges into shared resilience, building stronger production networks and supply chains,” he said.

Bizhub

- 13:59 24/07/2025