Standard Chartered revises Việt Nam's growth forecast in 2025

Standard Chartered revises Việt Nam's growth forecast in 2025

The bank expects growth to slow to 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the second half of 2025, from 7.5 per cent in H1.

Goods loaded at Chu Lai Port. Export growth picked up in early 2025, and the country continues to post modest trade surpluses. Photo chinhphu.vn

In its latest macroeconomic update about Việt Nam, Standard Chartered Bank has revised its 2025 growth forecast for Việt Nam to 6.1 per cent, down from 6.7 per cent.

The bank expects growth to slow to 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the second half of 2025, from 7.5 per cent in the first half (H1).

Despite a softer near-term trade outlook, Việt Nam’s macro fundamentals remain solid.

Export growth picked up in early 2025, and the country continues to post modest trade surpluses. Imports have also grown, with raw materials, production equipment and spare parts accounting for a significant share.

On the external front, Việt Nam recorded a strong trade surplus of US$2.8 billion in June, which supported the Vietnamese đồng and improved external balances. However, retail sales growth softened to 8.3 per cent year-on-year, indicating some moderation in domestic demand.

The bank also revised its 2025 inflation forecast down to 3.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent. The upward reversal in inflation has stalled in recent months, with headline inflation staying below 4 per cent year-on-year for the 11th consecutive month in June. This trend may reduce the scope for further monetary easing and could prompt policymakers to maintain a more neutral stance.

However, demand-driven inflation risks remain. The continued upward momentum in prices and ongoing currency weakness may limit the space for rate cuts. Standard Chartered expects the refinancing rate to remain unchanged for the rest of 2025.

FDI flows have shown strong improvement, led by the manufacturing sector and followed by the property sector. In H1, disbursed FDI rose 8.1 per cent year-on-year to $11.7 billion, while pledged FDI rose 32.6 per cent year-on-year to $21.5 billion.

The bank recently raised its USD exchange rate forecast to VNĐ26,300 for both end-Q3 and end-2025 (from previous forecasts of VNĐ26,000 and VNĐ25,700, respectively).

Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Việt Nam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said: “Việt Nam’s trade outlook remains encouraging, supported by solid export performance and strong tourism recovery. While we expect some moderation in both external and domestic indicators in the near term, this also presents an opportunity for the central bank to rebuild foreign exchange reserves. 

"Overall, we believe Việt Nam is well-positioned to navigate near-term challenges and sustain its growth momentum.”

As part of its ongoing efforts to provide market insights, Standard Chartered recently hosted the virtual 'Global & Việt Nam Outlook H2 2025', bringing together clients, businesses and industry leaders to discuss key economic trends shaping global and domestic markets. 

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