Việt Nam forecast to become world’s second-largest rice Importer by 2025–26

Việt Nam forecast to become world’s second-largest rice Importer by 2025–26

Việt Nam is projected to become the world’s second – largest rice importer in 2025-26, coming only after the Philippines, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Rice harvested in Cần Thơ Province. Việt Nam is projected to become the world’s second – largest rice importer in 2025-26. — VNA/VNS Photo Thu Hiền

Việt Nam is projected to become the world’s second – largest rice importer in 2025-26, coming only after the Philippines, as the country must ramp up imports to meet export demand amid falls in domestic production, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA estimates that Việt Nam will import four million tonnes of rice in 2024-25 and 4.1 million tonnes in 2025-2026, while the Philippines – a traditional buyer or Vietnamese rice – is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of rice with demand at around 5.5 million tonnes annually.

At the same time, Việt Nam is also predicted to surpass Thailand to become the world’s second largest rice exporter. The country is estimated to export 7.9 million tonnes of rice for both 2024-25 and 2025-26, outpacing Thailand’s exports of seven million tonnes and 7.2 million tonnes, respectively.

India is forecast to remain the world largest rice exporter with a projected annual volume of around 24 million tonnes.

According to the USDA’s report on Việt Nam grain and feed annual published in April, Việt Nam’s rice area and production are forecast to decline, as rice farmers switch to other more profitable crops.

To meet export demand, Việt Nam’s rice exporters and millers have been supplementing domestic supply by purchasing paddy rice from Cambodia. Paddy rice accounts for 77 percent of Việt Nam’s imports and is mostly supplied by that nation. India also supplies most of Vietnam’s milled rice imports.

Việt Nam’s rice imports are not the result of domestic shortages, Đỗ Hà Nam, Chairman of the Việt Nam Food (VFA) said, adding that Việt Nam mainly imports rice to serve re-export demand and for processing products such as noodles, vermicelli and rice paper.

Nam cited statistics which showed that Việt Nam imported around 1.1 million tonnes paddy, equivalent to 600,000 tonnes of rice, from Cambodia in the first two months of this year.

Vũ Vinh Phú, former Deputy Director of Hà Nội Department of Trade, said that Việt Nam’s rice exports are expected to remain robust for at least the next five years, despite emerging challenges from climate change, trade competition and shifting domestic demand. 

Việt Nam’s rice exports reached a record 9.04 million tonnes in 2024, up 11 percent year-on-year, with an increase of 21 per cent in value to reach $5.7 billion.  Meanwhile, rice import totalled  3.7 million tonnes last year. 

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