Global trade uncertainties take centre stage at ACCA forum

Global trade uncertainties take centre stage at ACCA forum

As global trade volatility persists, experts at a Hanoi seminar stressed how critical strategic foresight, innovation, and cross-sector collaboration are for nations and businesses to adapt, capitalise on emerging opportunities, and achieve sustainable growth.

The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) hosted a thematic seminar in Hanoi on May 20, offering a comprehensive outlook on the global economic landscape and its direct impact on Vietnam’s business community.

Featuring in-depth analyses by both local and international experts, the forum equipped businesses with practical strategies to cope with trade uncertainties, leverage Vietnam’s position in global supply chains, and strengthen resilience in an increasingly unpredictable economic environment.

Mike Suffield, director of Policy and Insights at ACCA, spoke of how developments in global trade will undoubtedly remain a key focal point this year. He also revealed that ACCA is preparing to release an in-depth report on this subject by the end of September.

"As an economy deeply integrated into global trade flows, Vietnam’s response to shifts in the global economy offers valuable lessons," said Suffield.

Mike Suffield, director of Policy and Insights, ACCA. Photo: ACCA Vietnam

Suffield pointed out that many economists are now warning of a potential US recession in the coming quarters, as American consumer confidence continues to plummet, hitting historic lows. One major driver is inflation concerns stemming from soaring import costs due to tariffs.

"According to recent research, US consumers in April anticipated inflation to exceed 6 per cent over the next 12 months, marking the highest level since 1981. Such inflationary pressures will undoubtedly erode real income and dampen consumption in the near future," Suffield said. "Additionally, the recent plunge in the US stock market has further weakened both consumer and business sentiment, potentially leading to a pullback in investment and spending."

"However, the temporary suspension of tariff hikes between the US and China offers a glimmer of hope that a recession might be avoided. That said, the overall message from all available data is clear; we are facing an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, one that affects policymakers, businesses, and investors worldwide."

A positive signal lies in the US decision to delay the imposition of higher tariffs on many countries, including China, which has helped reduce short-term risks to the global economic outlook.

"While uncertainties remain, this pause offers a degree of stability and may even lead to a more optimistic revision of forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook will largely depend on whether the parties can reach sustainable trade agreements before the 90-day suspension expires. If not, the threat of renewed trade escalation could re-emerge," continued Suffield.

"From the perspective of ACCA and the global accounting community, we believe professionals should maintain a rational optimism, while proactively preparing for less favourable scenarios," he added.

To Quoc Hung, country director at ACCA Vietnam, believes global economic dynamics are increasingly reshaping the business landscape for Vietnamese firms. In such a volatile environment, challenges and opportunities go hand in hand, requiring strategic thinking and timely action.

"In the face of market fluctuations, evolving legal frameworks, and emerging technologies, this forum serves as a platform to exchange effective adaptation strategies and inspire practical action from the Vietnamese business community. It reflects our shared commitment to understanding challenges and turning them into drivers of growth," said Hung.

To Quoc Hung, country director at ACCA Vietnam. Photo: ACCA Vietnam

Hung suggested that Vietnam must accelerate efforts to align with international standards as it seeks to diversify its global trade portfolio.

"In particular, the adoption of global sustainability and disclosure benchmarks, such as International Financial Reporting Standards S1 and S2, is critical to enhancing transparency and harmonisation with international markets. Advancing these standards will support investor confidence and strengthen Vietnam’s position as a credible, competitive partner in the global value chain," he said. "As a leading professional body in accounting and auditing, ACCA remains committed to standing with businesses, proactively researching emerging trends and delivering the tools and insights necessary for strategic planning. This also aligns with our broader mission; to elevate professional standards in accounting and foster sustainable development, opening doors to a more prosperous economic future."

Photo: ACCA Vietnam

From a legal standpoint, Gwendoline Brooker, partner at Frasers Law Company, highlighted that one of the key challenges Vietnam faces is the lack of trade diversification.

"Vietnam’s economy remains heavily reliant on exports to the US, with a concentration in manufacturing sectors such as footwear, textiles, steel, and electronic components," she said.

"We’re witnessing a global trend towards diversification. This is clearly reflected in recent economic forecasts. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating, marking an historic move, considering the US had maintained its AAA rating for decades. Since Moody’s inception, such a downgrade was almost unthinkable."

"Is the US becoming increasingly isolated? And if so, to what extent should other economies remain dependent on it?," asked Brooker.

"In Vietnam, many of our manufacturing clients are now asking; What are the alternative markets? China is one option, Southeast Asia has potential, but increasingly we’re seeing interest shift towards the European Union. We’re witnessing a notable increase in EU trade delegations to Vietnam, along with growing attention from European investors and foreign direct investment, particularly those seeking to understand Vietnam’s legal framework and export procedures to the EU."

Brooker spoke of the significance of Canadian delegations visiting Vietnam for the first time.

"I recently met with representatives from Alberta, who are looking to expand not only into Vietnam but across ASEAN. They see this region, especially Vietnam, as a safer and arguably more stable destination compared to China. The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have created enormous uncertainty. No one knows whether the situation will escalate or de-escalate, and that’s precisely the problem," Brooker posited.

"That’s why, when advising our manufacturing clients, my message is consistent; diversify. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. At the same time, it’s vital to strengthen relationships with the Vietnamese government, not just for licensing purposes, but to build trust, secure policy assurances, and align with institutional reforms to ensure long-term operational certainty in a rapidly changing world," she added.

VIR