Market sees divergence as VN-Index approaches the 1,280–1,300 resistance zone
Market sees divergence as VN-Index approaches the 1,280–1,300 resistance zone
The stock market is facing an opportunity for a breakthrough but also encounters significant challenges from sectoral divergence and selling pressure from foreign investors.
Investors monitor the stock market. — Photo baotintuc.vn |
Việt Nam’s stock market experienced a relatively positive trading week following the Lunar New Year holiday, but the VN-Index is now facing significant challenges as it approaches the strong resistance zone of 1,280–1,300 points.
The index has recorded an impressive recovery, surpassing key resistance levels, including 2023’s highest price range and the 200-day moving average. By the end of the first trading week of February, the VN-Index closed at 1,275.2 points, up 0.8 per cent from the previous week.
Meanwhile, the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange ended at 229.49 points, gaining 2.9 per cent week-on-week.
Market liquidity also showed a notable improvement after the holiday, exceeding the 20-week average after nine consecutive weeks below this threshold.
The total trading value for the past week reached VNĐ70.2 trillion (US$2.77 billion), marking a 19.14 per cent increase from the previous week.
Despite the market’s brighter performance, foreign investors remained net sellers, offloading nearly VNĐ3.5 trillion worth of stocks in the first week of February, with Masan Group (MSN) and Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM) being the primary targets.
On the HoSE, foreign investors were net sellers for five consecutive sessions, selling a total of 90.34 million shares worth VNĐ3.5 trillion.
This was a stark contrast to the pre-holiday week, when they were net buyers of 20.76 million shares, equivalent to a net buying value of VNĐ120.38 billion.
Meanwhile, on the HNX, foreign investors bought net in three sessions and sold net in two. Over the week, they net bought 9.02 million shares, with a total net purchase value of VNĐ92.76 billion - an increase from the previous week, when they net bought fewer than half a million shares worth VNĐ27.93 billion.
According to Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Research at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), the VN-Index’s approach to a strong resistance level has led to increased portfolio restructuring pressure.
After a sharp decline at the start of the week, the market rebounded with four consecutive gaining sessions, indicating improved investor sentiment and helping the index break through key resistance levels.
Nhật emphasised that in the short term, market speculation remains high as investors focus on stocks that have yet to see significant gains, while liquidity remains at a moderate level.
“This is not an ideal price zone for increasing large positions. Therefore, short-term investors should avoid chasing prices and carefully select stocks when VN30 and VN-Index approach strong resistance,” Nhật said.
Additionally, he advised investors to reassess their short-term portfolios, maintaining reasonable weightings and focusing on fundamentally strong, leading stocks in key strategic and high-growth industries.
Experts from Vietnam Commercial Bank Securities (VCBS) suggested that investors take advantage of market fluctuations in the coming week to consider increasing exposure to stocks already in their portfolios, particularly those that are retesting reliable support levels.
They recommended looking for stocks recovering from deep corrections as potential short-term trading opportunities, with sectors such as electricity, banking, and real estate showing promising growth prospects.
