How does Donald Trump presidency impact Vietnam’s 2025 US exports?
How does Donald Trump presidency impact Vietnam’s 2025 US exports?
Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. are forecast to rise in 2025, though there may be challenges caused by Donald Trump’s trade policies, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said at a recent seminar in Hanoi.
Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to the U.S. account for a large proportion in its total export revenue. Photo: Quang Dinh / Tuoi Tre |
The incoming administration is expected to impact global and regional politics, economies and finances in 2025, particularly due to an expected increase in U.S. protectionist policies, Do Ngoc Hung, trade counselor and head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the U.S., said at the seminar on forecasts about exports to the U.S. in 2025 held by the European-American Market Department.
But it is not just the future U.S. administration that may cause issues for Vietnamese trade. Just this year, the U.S. launched 10 investigations into Vietnamese goods.
Policies which have impacted China, including an anti-forced-labor law and a ban against imports from Xinjiang have caused collateral damage to Vietnamese firms.
To address inflation and trade deficits, the U.S. is considering raising taxes on imports from markets that impose high tariffs on U.S. goods, including China, India, the European Union, Thailand, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
The U.S. is expected to invoke the Trade Act of 1974 to increase tariffs on specific countries, aiming to curb China's export of certain goods.
Nevertheless, the U.S. and Vietnam have recently elevated their bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and currently consider each other partners of strategic importance, with plans to boost cooperation in politics, economy, and trade.
Trade between the two countries reached US$112 billion in January-October.
Vietnam enjoyed a trade surplus of $102 billion with the U.S., up 26 percent year on year and making up 29.5 percent of the Southeast Asian country’s total export revenue.
Vietnam ranked third after China and Mexico in terms of trade surplus with the U.S., accounting for 30 percent of ASEAN’s total export turnover to the American market.
According to Hung, Vietnam could reduce the trade surplus by honoring its commitments to market openness and expediting the resolution of proposals from the U.S. business community, reaffirming its dedication to strengthening trade and investment relations with the U.S..
The Trump administration has also signaled plans to return to the traditional energy sector in a bid to push the U.S. into the role of the world’s leading energy exporter. This would leave ample room for Vietnam to cooperate with the U.S. in energy and rare earth mining, strengthening the two countries’ economic and trade relations, according to Hung.
Miguel A. Ferrer, CEO of Renewables at VloT Groups, projected that Vietnam's exports to the U.S. would increase in 2025, driven by advantages such as competitive labor costs, robust infrastructure, and significant foreign direct investment from major corporations.
Key export sectors, including textiles and garments, electronics, wood products, and high-tech goods, have sustained their growth momentum, bolstered by trade agreements.
However, Ferrer noted that trade protectionist policies, stricter origin controls, high logistics costs, and competition from Mexico and India pose significant challenges for Vietnam's export growth.
The economic downturn risk and global volatility may also reduce Washington's import demand.
As a result, Ferrer recommended Vietnam diversify markets, increase product value by improving technology, branding, and investing heavily in logistics and digitalization.
Vietnamese enterprises should be mindful of the origin of products, import materials from the U.S., and work to improve technology and product quality.
