ADB revises Vietnam’s growth forecast upward for 2024 and 2025
ADB revises Vietnam’s growth forecast upward for 2024 and 2025
Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised upward to 6.4 per cent from 6 per cent and from 6.6 per cent from 6.2 per cent for 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
According to ADB's December edition of its Asian Development Outlook, strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures drove Vietnam’s economic growth to 6.8 per cent for the first three quarters of 2024. The robust rebound in export-led manufacturing and trade, bolstered by the resilient US economy, is expected to continue supporting GDP growth.
Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to further stimulate domestic demand. Despite the severe impacts caused by Typhoon Yagi in various parts of the country, the swift government response and recovery efforts limited the impacts on growth.
Notwithstanding the upward adjustments in government-controlled prices of education and healthcare, along with rising wages earlier in the year, Vietnam’s inflation forecast is revised slightly down to 3.9 per cent for 2024. The country’s prudent and flexible monetary policy, combined with subdued global oil prices due to the global economic slowdown, is expected to keep inflation in check at 4 per cent in 2025.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains Vietnam’s full-year growth forecast at 6.4 per cent, which implies a 5.2 per cent outcome for the final quarter of the year. For 2025, UOB anticipates an expansion pace of 6.6 per cent. The Vietnamese government has pegged GDP growth at 6.5-7 per cent for 2024 and 6.5-7 per cent as well for 2025, while striving to hit the 7-7.5 per cent range.
In October, Standard Chartered Bank also revised Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth higher, following a strong third-quarter performance. Accordingly, Standard Chartered Bank revised Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth from 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent, reflecting stronger-than-expected GDP last quarter. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.9 per cent in the fourth quarter. The forecast for next year remains 6.7 per cent, with projected growth of 7.5 per cent on-year in the first half of the year and 6.1 per cent on-year in the second half.
