Shares to fluctuate around 1,200 points before going up again

The VN-Index is likely to fluctuate around the threshold of 1,200 points before recovering after the third quarter earning results season of 2022.

 

On the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index lost 0.94 per cent to end last week at 1,203.28 points.

The southern market index had lost 2.49 per cent last week.

An average of 505.3 million shares were traded on the southern exchange during each session last week, worth VND12.1 trillion (US$510.3 million).

Despite the supportive efforts of cash flow from the previous sessions, the market could not regain the upward momentum on Friday.

“The movement gradually decreased during the session with the closing level near the lowest level and liquidity still not improved, showing cash flow has returned to a cautious state,” said Viet Dragon Securities Co (VDSC).

“The support signal from the previous session has not been confirmed with the cautious movement of the money flow, it is likely that the market will retest the 1,195 – 1,200 of VN-Index.

“If this support zone is still unable to attract cash flow, the market may continue to face a weakening state in the near future. Therefore, investors should still keep the portfolio at a safe level and observe the signal of cash flow. In the meantime, wait for a reliable support signal or move back to a reasonable price to accumulate stocks with good valuation."

With unconfirmed support signals from the previous sessions and poor support in large-cap stocks, VN-Index might continue to probe below 1,200 points in the next sessions, VDSC said.

If this support zone is still unable to attract money flow, the market might continue to weaken in the near future. Therefore, investors should keep the portfolio at a safe level and observe the signal. At the same time, they should wait for a reliable support signal or a reasonable price to accumulate stocks, VDSC said.

Following a decision by the US Fed on September 22, the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) joined the global trend and increased operating interest rates for the Vietnamese dong (VND) from 4 per cent to 5 per cent.

According to Saigon-Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), with the VND still keeping a good value when the economy maintains growth, companies with a large proportion of cash and a low debt ratio will have an advantage.

According to Hoang Cong Tuan, Chief Economist of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), said that the Fed’s decisions remain significantly influential globally, because the US dollar is mostly reserved at central banks around the world and circulated in most commercial activities.

All the moves of the State Bank have gradually affected the stock market in recent years. Therefore, the latest interest rate hike by the State Bank of Viet Nam shows a strong message, steadfastly putting the goal of stabilising the macro-economy as the top priority. Inflation and exchange rates will be closely and stably managed in the future.

However, the driving force of Viet Nam's macro economy is still very strong. Viet Nam's growth engine comes from consumption and investment as the economy fully opens after COVID-19.

Experts from MB Securities Co (MBS) said that from this week, the domestic market would receive macro information and business results reports of listed enterprises. The VN-Index was likely to fluctuate around the threshold of 1,200 points before recovering in the third quarter of 2022.

Saigon-Hanoi Securities Co (SHS) said that oil and gas stocks had the most negative movements last week. The main reason came from the continued decline in global oil prices. Some typical losers were Viet Nam National Petroleum Group (PLX) down 4.9 per cent, Binh Son Refinery (BSR) down 3 per cent, PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Services Corporation (PVD) down 2.6 per cent and PetroVietnam Technical Services Corporation (PVS) down 1.9 per cent. 

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