Property market slump to continue for a few more quarters: experts
Property market slump to continue for a few more quarters: experts
The real estate market will remain gloomy for the rest of the year and even beyond due to the unpredictable nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, analysts predict.
Apartments in the eastern part of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran.
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When the pandemic resurged in the second quarter, the land segment became quiet while housing sales declined and supply plunged. The analysts said the situation could only improve when the outbreak is controlled and mass vaccination becomes available.
DKRA Vietnam deputy general director of sales and marketing Tran Hieu forecast things to remain quiet throughout Q3 since many localities could remain locked down till mid-August.
Also called "ghost month" in the lunar calendar, people refrain from buying and selling properties during this period.
He had two cautious scenarios for the market. In the first, HCMC will be able to control its outbreak by October and people return to a somewhat normal life with basic Covid-safe measures and businesses began boosting sales for the year-end peak season.
In the second, the market remains gloomy throughout Q4 and only recovers after Lunar New Year 2022, which falls in February of the year.Many companies have opted to wait until the market recovers to restart business while others have shifted to online-to-offline (O2O) channels.
Hieu said HCMC would continue to face a short supply even after the outbreak is controlled since some legal issues that have plagued the market for years have not yet been resolved. That would be a great opportunity for developers whose properties are ready for sale post-pandemic.
Meanwhile, demand for property in developed cities remains high, especially among the middle- and high-income groups. Property prices in the primary market will continue to rise due to limited supply and improved infrastructure. The low and relatively stable lending interest rates will foster the market recovery by stimulating investment.
Yet many experts remain pessimistic about a recovery in Q4.
Asia Gem Real Estate general director Nguyen Loc Hanh said in Q2, when Covid reemerged, demand for both land and housing plummeted, and this could continue for more quarters.
As the country focuses on fighting the outbreak, real estate development and consumption might be temporarily forgotten, and so it is too early to determine the exact time of recovery since that would depend completely on the pandemic situation and vaccination rates, he said.
Even countries with enough vaccines like the U.S took six to eight months to implement mass vaccination and resume economic activities, he pointed out.
"Therefore, we cannot be optimistic about the real estate market recovery in Vietnam in the next few months. In the best-case scenario, the market might have a chance to recover from the end of Q1 2022."
