Ministry announces two growth scenarios for second half of 2021
Ministry announces two growth scenarios for second half of 2021
The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has devised two growth scenarios for the second half of 2021, said Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong. 
At a press conference following the Government’s regular meeting in Ha Noi on Thursday, Phuong said under the first scenario with a growth target of 6 per cent for the whole year, growth in the third and fourth quarters should reach 6.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, provided that the COVID-19 pandemic is basically curbed in July and there are no pandemic clusters in industrial parks and no social distancing in major cities and provinces.
To achieve a 6.5 per cent growth rate this year under the second scenario, the country must reach growth of 7 per cent in the third quarter and 7.5 per cent and above in the fourth quarter provided that the pandemic is controlled in June and there are no pandemic clusters in industrial parks and no social distancing in major cities and provinces.
The MPI reported that the economy encountered challenges in the first half of this year, mostly from COVID-19 outbreaks with new variants, rising prices in real estate, materials, transportation and international trade risks.
In the first half of this year, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.64 per cent, higher than 1.82 per cent recorded in the same period last year but lower than 7.05 per cent and 6.77 per cent in the same periods in 2018 and 2019. The consumer price index went up 1.47 per cent in the first half of this year, the lowest since 2016.
As of June 23, credit grew by 5.08 per cent from late 2020 and 15.41 per cent year-on-year.
State budget collections hit 57.7 per cent of the estimate, up 15.3 per cent annually. Total budget expenditure was down 4.9 per cent year-on-year, or 41.2 per cent of the yearly estimate. Food security was still ensured.
