VN-Index to move flat, large-cap stocks to weaken amid lack of information
Viet Nam’s benchmark VN-Index last week ended at its 13-month high but its struggle on the last two days signalled growth had stalled and it would move sideways in the coming week.
The benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange finished at 1,022.49 points on Friday, totalling a weekly gain of 0.68 per cent last week.
The VN-Index advanced on the back of large-cap stocks as they boosted the VN-Index above 1,008 points, which was previously reached in October 2018.
Banks, building material producers and construction firms were among the strongest gainers and supported the market.
Most of the 30 largest companies by market capitalisation and trading liquidity had released their third-quarter earnings reports such as Vietcombank (VCB), Hoa Phat (HPG), Vincom Retail (VRE), Vinhomes (VHM), retailer Mobile World Investment (MWG) and dairy firm Vinamilk (VNM).
Analysts believed the market ran out of growth momentum as the effect of the corporate earnings season had been reflected in the growth of blue chips earlier.
The VN-Index had met some strong resistance when it tried to beat the 1,025-1,030 point zone, which was also the previous peak in October 2018, Ngo Quoc Hung, senior analyst at MB Securities Co’s market strategy department, told tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn.
“The index’s struggle was totally normal and any declines in the early days of next week are also expected especially after the benchmark index and VN30 large-caps have made the strongest rallies so far in the year,” he said.
Normally, the market needed to settle down after breaking through a resistance point, and it is the 1,000 points in the case of the VN-Index, so that it can target sustainable growth, he said.
“Therefore, any declines from now on are only technical as the market is still in its uptrend scenario,” Hung added.
Further growth of the market would depend on the inflow of the capital, or cash, according to Phan Dung Khanh, Maybank Kim Eng Securities Co’s director of investment and consultancy.
Trading liquidity was declining so it would be hard for the VN-Index to continue growing and surpass 1,030 points soon, he said.
The Vietnamese market may benefit from the movement of global stocks on positive news about the US-China trade war and the prospects of the domestic economy and companies, he added.
The trade relations between the two largest economies have been progressing in recent weeks as the two sides have been willing to step down to cool down the war that has dragged on the global economy.
After Chile cancelled its hosting of the APEC Summit for domestic instability, some other places have been suggested as alternatives for the signing of the US-China phase 1 trade agreement.
However, US President Donald Trump on Friday said he had not agreed to remove all tariffs though China really wants to. The statement cast out new doubts about the trade deal progress.
Hung warned the last three months of the year would lack news for the stock market and the domestic market had already claimed to the new high, so a short-term correction was likely.
The growth of local stocks doesn’t match the growth of the VN-Index as attention was mostly paid to large-cap stocks while mid-cap and small-cap stocks had been ignored, according to Hung.
Since October end, 43.5 per cent of all HoSE-listed stocks advanced and 49.5 per cent of them declined. Only a fifth of the gainers beat the gain of the VN-Index.
In the VN30 basket, only a third of the 30 largest stocks were able to beat the VN-Index in the same period.
Khanh said blue-chip stocks were still strong enough and they would still take the main role to drive the market up.
However, the large-caps may need some rest before returning to the action, he added.