Different scenarios for VN-Index in Q4

Oct 7th at 07:41
07-10-2019 07:41:17+07:00

Different scenarios for VN-Index in Q4

Brokerages proposed different scenarios for the movement of VN-Index from now until the end of the year depending on the world's economic growth prospects.


The benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Exchange slid 0.49 per cent to close at 987.59 points.

The index lost 1.03 last week.

On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index dropped 0.05 per cent to end Friday at 105.16 points, totalling a weekly rise of 0.37 per cent.

An average of 217.3 million shares were traded on each session last week, worth VND4.8 trillion (US$204 million).

According to BIDV Securities Company (BSC), based on the evaluation of domestic and foreign impact factors, the VN-Index can range from 940 to 1,050 points, of which the key price area is around 980 points.

“We forecast that the VN-Index will rebound up to 1,015 - 1,025 points in October. If this short-term peak is not reached, the VN-Index is likely to return to accumulate around 980 points in November and recover gradually in December,” BSC said.

In the fourth quarter, BSC proposed two scenarios for VN-Index.

“In a positive case, VN-Index closed above 1,000 points at the end of the year (an increase compared to 980 points in the six-month report). The trend is still moving around large-cap stocks, stocks that had full foreign ownership in the new index are expected to attract new foreign capital inflows.”

In the second scenarios, “VN-Index may drop below 960 points when encountering unfavourable news from the world and international capital flows are not strong enough to spread to markets.”

In September, foreign investors were net sellers on the HSX with VND378.9 billion, and they net sold VND28.4 billion on the HNX.

In Q3, foreign investors net bought VND162.5 billion on the HSX, and net sold VND413.3 billion on the HNX.

According to Hoang Thach Lan, head of individual investor division at Viet Dragon Securities JSC (VDSC), the world was still in a state of instability.

“When there's still no clear outcome to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the US and EU are on the verge of a new tariff war, which will strongly affect the investment decisions of ETFs,” Lan said.

The stocks that contributed the most to the increase of VN-Index in the first nine months of this year were Vietcombank (VCB), Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM) and PetroVietnam Gas JSC (GAS).

Vietcombank contributed 31.81 points (3.56 per cent) to the VN-Index. In nine months, VCB's share increased from VND53,500 per share to VND82,100 per share, equivalent to 53.5 per cent.

VCB’s rally was attributed to positive business results. In the first six months of 2019, the bank's profit after tax reached VND9 trillion, an increase of 41 per cent over the same period last year, continuing to maintain the leading position in the banking system's profits.

Vingroup (VIC) contributed to the VN-Index 23.98 points (2.69 per cent), while VHM added 17 points (1.92 per cent). After nine months, VIC shares increased by 25.7 per cent, VHM rose by 23.1 per cent.

Vingroup is still the largest enterprise in the stock market by capitalisation with VND394.8 trillion. Vingroup operates in various fields of real estate, hospitality, retail, education, healthcare, car and smartphone manufacturing, artificial intelligence research.

Vinhomes, a subsidiary of Vingroup, achieved VND26 trillion in revenue in the first six months this year, up 72 per cent year-on-year. Profit after tax reached VND11 trillion, up 36.6 per cent year-on-year.

In the opposite direction, Bao Viet Holdings (BVH) put the biggest pressure on VN-Index in the past nine months.

BVH took away 3.02 points (0.34 per cent) of VN-Index by reducing by nearly 6 per cent in nine months, from VND89,000 per share to VND74,800 per share.

After-tax profit of BVH reached only VND670.8 billion in after-tax profit, down 20 per cent over the same period last year.




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