Broader capital flow needed to sustain double-digit growth target

Broader capital flow needed to sustain double-digit growth target

Achieving double-digit growth in the first year of the new development phase would remain challenging, particularly as new growth drivers were still taking shape, the forum heard.

Participants at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2027 held in Hà Nội on November 12. — Photo vietnambiz.vn

 Việt Nam is poised for a new growth cycle with strong public investment and foreign direct investment supporting its ambition of achieving at least 10 per cent economic growth in 2027, but improved access to capital and stronger private-sector investment remain critical to sustain growth momentum, experts said.

Speaking at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2027 in Hà Nội on November 12, Cấn Văn Lực, chief economist at BIDV, forecast that Việt Nam’s gross domestic product could expand by 9.5-9.7 per cent in 2026 and around 10 per cent next year.

Achieving double-digit growth in the first year of the new development phase, however, would remain challenging, particularly as new growth drivers were still taking shape.

Investment has been a major driver, with total investment across the economy rising about 15 per cent in the first nine months of 2026.

But the benefits remain unevenly distributed, he said, pointing out that foreign-invested companies account for around 80 per cent of Việt Nam’s exports and 73 per cent of imports, highlighting the limited participation of domestic businesses in international supply chains.

Nguyễn Việt Anh, deputy chief executive officer in charge of strategy and governance at TPBank, said investment expansion was increasingly visible among large companies and foreign-invested businesses, but smaller domestic enterprises had yet to show a clear recovery.

He said higher interest rates and liquidity pressures are complicating efforts to mobilise the capital needed for expansion, especially in the context that credit growth had consistently exceeded deposit growth over the past five years.

Nguyễn Đức Hải, senior investment director at Manulife Investments Vietnam, offered a more cautious assessment of the emerging growth cycle, saying stronger macroeconomic indicators had yet to translate into broad-based private investment.

He called for deeper capital markets and greater participation by institutional investors to mobilise medium- and long-term funds to reduce the burden on commercial banks.

Improve access for SMEs

Improving access to finance for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was identified as a priority to ensure that economic growth benefits a wider range of businesses.

Trịnh Quỳnh Giao, chief executive officer of PVI Asset Management, said nine banks had registered to participate in a credit programme supporting SME growth, with a planned lending scale of around VNĐ409 trillion (US$16 billion).

However, outstanding loans under the programme had reached only VNĐ18.6 trillion by early October, or less than 5 per cent.

Lực said SMEs needed better access to land, capital, technology and skilled labour, alongside improvements in corporate governance and transparency.

He also urged smaller businesses to diversify their funding sources, including through financial leasing.

Credit guarantee mechanisms should also be introduced to share lending risks and encourage banks to extend more financing to smaller businesses.

Participants also stressed that Việt Nam needs to deepen its capital market, as the country could not rely on bank lending alone to finance its long-term growth ambitions.

With regard to the stock market, Nguyễn Sơn, chairman of the Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, said the market upgrade would not automatically trigger an immediate surge in foreign investment, as funds needed time to review and adjust their portfolios.

He called for more quality listings through initial public offerings by major private groups and financially strong state-owned enterprises, alongside state divestment from companies where controlling ownership was no longer necessary. 

Bizhub