Domestic demand drives steel growth as construction gathers pace

Domestic demand drives steel growth as construction gathers pace

Construction is expected to remain one of the key drivers of economic growth as major national infrastructure projects move ahead.

A steel rebar production line at a Hoa Phat Group plant. —  Photo hoaphat.com.vn

The steel industry recorded double-digit growth in both production and sales in the first seven months of 2026, while export growth remained more subdued, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic demand as public investment and construction activity expand.

According to the World Steel Association, Việt Nam produced around 15.2 million tonnes of crude steel in the first half of 2026, up 26.9 per cent year-on-year, keeping the country among the world's 10 largest steel producers.

The Vietnam Steel Association reported crude steel output of 17.9 million tonnes in the first seven months, up 28 per cent, significantly outpacing growth of about 12 per cent in manufacturing and processing and 11.4 per cent across the industrial sector.

Finished steel production reached approximately 21.4 million tonnes, rising 15.4 per cent, while sales increased 15.6 per cent to 21.2 million tonnes.

Construction steel and hot-rolled coil (HRC) were among the strongest segments. HRC sales surged 44.3 per cent, while construction steel remained the industry's largest segment at nearly nine million tonnes, up 19.6 per cent. 

Total steel export volume declined slightly by 1.4 per cent during the period even as overall sales rose rapidly, indicating an increasing contribution from domestic consumption.

For the final months of the year, demand is expected to receive support from accelerating public investment and recovering construction activity.

Vietcombank Securities said construction was expected to remain one of the key drivers of economic growth as major national infrastructure projects move ahead.

As steel is a critical input for infrastructure construction, demand is expected to maintain positive medium-term growth.

The National Assembly has approved a medium-term public investment plan of over VNĐ8.2 quadrillion (US$315 billion) for 2026–2030, with around 43 per cent expected to be allocated to infrastructure, including ongoing and new projects.

Housing construction could provide another source of demand. The Government has adjusted its social housing development target through 2030 to nearly 1.1 million units, with implementation expected to accelerate from now through next year.

A steel rebar production line at a Hoa Phat Group plant. —  Photo hoaphat.com.vn

Steelmakers show divergent earnings

The industry's improving demand environment has been accompanied by significant differences in earnings among major listed steelmakers.

Hoa Phat Group recorded revenue of VNĐ108.9 trillion in the first half, up 47 per cent year-on-year, while net profit more than doubled to VNĐ15.5 trillion.

Crude steel production reached nearly seven million tonnes, up 36 per cent, while steel product sales increased 32 per cent to around 6.5 million tonnes. HRC sales climbed 57 per cent to nearly 3.4 million tonnes, supported by stronger domestic consumption and an increasing contribution from the Dung Quất 2 project.

Nam Kim Steel, meanwhile, recorded a strong profit recovery despite lower revenue. 

First-half revenue declined 6.2 per cent to approximately VNĐ7.41 trillion, while net profit jumped 98 per cent to around VNĐ124 billion. Its profit before tax reached VNĐ188 billion, equivalent to 47 per cent of its annual target.

Hoa Sen Group also showed an improvement later in its financial year. During the first six months of its 2025–2026 fiscal year (from September 30, 2025, to March 31), revenue declined 7.1 per cent to VNĐ17.35 trillion and net profit fell 51.5 per cent to VNĐ181 billion, partly due to higher financial and interest expenses.

By the end of the first nine months, however, revenue had reached VNĐ27.35 trillion and net profit VNĐ568 billion, with profit already exceeding its full-year target.

VNSteel reported first-half net profit of approximately VNĐ433 billion, up 69 per cent. 

Although second-quarter revenue declined 6 per cent, its gross margin improved to nearly 7 per cent from 4.6 per cent a year earlier. Its profit growth, however, received a significant contribution from joint ventures and associates.

Analysts recommended investors focus on steelmakers with large production capacity, strong domestic market positions, competitive production costs and direct exposure to growing domestic demand.

Raw material cost management, margins and cash flow also remain important considerations, as higher production volumes do not necessarily translate into corresponding profit growth when selling prices and input costs fluctuate adversely. 

Bizhub