Economy needs 11.9 per cent growth in H2 to achieve 10 per cent GDP target for 2026

Economy needs 11.9 per cent growth in H2 to achieve 10 per cent GDP target for 2026

Vietnam's economy will need to grow by around 11.9 per cent in the second half of 2026 to achieve the government's 10 per cent GDP growth target for the full year. However, this is not simply a matter of accelerating growth. It also requires keeping inflation under control, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and improving the quality of growth.

Hoang Van Cuong, vice chairman of the Vietnam Economic Association

Speaking at the Summer Economic Roundtable 2026, "From Policy to Growth: Solutions for Achieving Double-Digit Growth, Controlling Inflation, and Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability in 2026," Hoang Van Cuong, vice chairman of the Vietnam Economic Association, said 2026 was a pivotal year. It marks both the first year of the country's 2026-2030 socioeconomic development plan and the first year Vietnam has set a 10 per cent growth target, laying the foundation for sustained double-digit growth in the years ahead.

"High economic growth is meaningful only when it is built on a foundation of macroeconomic stability, effective inflation control, balanced economic fundamentals, and higher productivity. The goal is not growth at any cost, but rapid yet sustainable growth, and high-quality growth," he said.

Citing economic data for the first six months of the year, Cuong noted that Vietnam's GDP expanded 8.18 per cent, the highest first-half growth rate in 15 years, supported by broad-based recovery across all three major sectors of the economy.

Manufacturing and processing industries continued to serve as the primary growth engine, while investment, consumption, and exports all recorded solid improvements. State budget revenue, foreign direct investment (FDI), and total social investment also posted strong gains, providing room for additional growth-supporting policies in the months ahead.

Cuong said, "These results reflected not only the recovery of traditional growth drivers, but also the initial effectiveness of institutional reforms aimed at removing investment bottlenecks, encouraging private sector development, advancing science and technology, fostering innovation, and accelerating digital transformation."

He added that these reforms are creating an important foundation for a new growth cycle driven by higher productivity and more efficient resource allocation.

Despite the encouraging performance, Cuong warned that challenges in the second half of the year remain significant. "To achieve the annual growth target of 10 per cent, the economy must expand by approximately 11.9 per cent during the final six months of 2026, while keeping inflation at around 4.5 per cent and preserving macroeconomic stability," he said.

He stressed that these three objectives must be pursued simultaneously. Prioritising growth alone could increase inflationary pressures and create macroeconomic imbalances, while overly cautious policymaking could cause Vietnam to miss opportunities at a time when global supply chains and international capital flows are undergoing restructuring.

Cuong also identified several structural bottlenecks that require urgent attention. These include continued dependence on the FDI sector for growth, uneven public investment disbursement, difficulties businesses face in accessing finance, implementation capacity that has yet to match policy ambitions, and the fact that science, technology, and innovation have not yet become genuine drivers of economic growth.

"The gap between policymaking and policy implementation is currently the country's greatest challenge in achieving its growth objectives," he said.

Against this backdrop, the Summer Economic Roundtable 2026 focused on solutions to accelerate institutional reform, improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, speed up public investment disbursement, strengthen the private sector, enhance the economy's resilience to external shocks, and, above all, improve policy implementation so that government decisions can be translated more quickly into tangible growth.

VIR