AMRO upgrades Vietnam growth forecast to 7.5 per cent

AMRO upgrades Vietnam growth forecast to 7.5 per cent

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has upgraded Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 7.5 per cent.

AMRO released its July 2026 Quarterly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook on July 27, projecting Vietnam to grow 7.5 per cent in 2026, up from its June forecast of 7.2 per cent.

AMRO also raised its growth forecast to 7.3 per cent in 2027, up from its June forecast of 7 per cent, while revising down its inflation forecasts to 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.9 per cent in 2027.

The upward revision to Vietnam's growth forecast is in line with other organisations. Standard Chartered has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 to 9.5 per cent, up from its previous projection of 7.2 per cent.

Standard Chartered said the adjustment follows Vietnam's positive economic performance in the first half of the year, with growth drivers continuing to gain momentum. It also expects the positive trend to carry into 2027, predicting GDP growth of 11 per cent.

Likewise, United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised up Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.5 per cent, citing stronger-than-expected first-half economic performance driven by manufacturing, investment and foreign direct investment.

UOB noted that Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated to 8.39 per cent on-year in the second quarter of 2026, from 7.94 per cent in the first quarter, bringing first-half growth to 8.18 per cent.

Vietnam’s positive economic outlook comes as regional growth prospects improve. AMRO projects the ASEAN+3 region to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, before moderating slightly to 4 per cent in 2027. Headline inflation is projected at 1.6 per cent in 2026, down from 1.8 per cent previously, reflecting lower global commodity price assumptions. ASEAN+3 comprises the 10 ASEAN member states together with China, Japan, and South Korea

The upgrade outlook reflects sustained momentum in the region's technology sector, particularly robust demand for semiconductors and other AI-related products, alongside a more favourable global commodity price outlook. Firm household spending, resilient investment, and robust semiconductor and electronics exports are expected to continue driving growth. Energy and industrial input supply disruptions proved less severe than initially feared, with manufacturing activity continuing to expand.

“ASEAN+3 has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and its central role in global AI supply chains,” said AMRO chief economist Dong He. “The impact of the Middle East conflict has also been less severe than initially expected, although elevated energy and input costs continue to pose risks to inflation and industrial activity.”

VIR