Vietnam’s 2025 trade turnover could surpass $900 billion

Vietnam’s 2025 trade turnover could surpass $900 billion

Vietnam's trade turnover is set to hit a historic milestone of over $900 billion in 2025, with nine-month results already surpassing expectations

Speaking at a meeting on September 5, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said that despite global turbulence and domestic restructuring, industrial production, retail, energy supply, and especially external trade have delivered strong results.

Retail sales in September rose nearly 2 per cent over August and 11.7 per cent compared to the same month of 2024. For the nine-month period, retail grew 9.5 per cent, higher than the 8.8 per cent increase a year earlier. Domestic supply remains abundant with stable prices, ensuring smooth provision even in disaster-affected areas. Electricity and fuel supply were secured, while e-commerce expanded by around 22–23 per cent.

Trade continued to be a bright spot. September turnover reached $82.5 billion, bringing the nine-month total to over $680 billion, well above targets. “If no major shocks occur, this year's total trade turnover will set a record of more than $900 billion, with a surplus above $20 billion,” Dien said.

Still, he cautioned that the final quarter poses challenges. Geopolitical tensions and war-related disruptions may affect raw material supply and production. Inflation is trending higher, while key partners are raising technical barriers. Reciprocal tariff measures by the United States, in force since August 7, also add pressure.

To secure growth, the ministry is pressing for urgent solutions to ease business difficulties, revive production, and accelerate institutional reform. Support for provincial authorities is being enhanced to raise policy effectiveness. Dien underlined the importance of expediting public investment disbursement and fast-tracking major national projects to mobilise resources and spur domestic demand.

He also urged further support for enterprises and industry associations in market development. Trade promotion events, including the Autumn Fair 2025 scheduled for October 26 to November 4, will help, alongside participation in regional fairs in ASEAN, China, and South Korea, to leverage existing free trade agreements.

On trade negotiations, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will in October launch negotiations on two new free trade agreements (FTAs): one with the Gulf Cooperation Council and another with Mercosur. A delegation will also visit Pakistan to begin talks, with the goal of concluding negotiations within three months. With a population of over 240 million, Pakistan represents significant potential for Vietnamese exports.

“The continued expansion of our FTA network will diversify markets, strengthen supply chain resilience, and boost Vietnam's position in global trade,” the minister said.

VIR