Standard Chartered raises Việt Nam’s growth forecast for 2025

Standard Chartered raises Việt Nam’s growth forecast for 2025

The bank also revised its inflation forecasts slightly to 3.4 per cent for 2025 and 3.7 per cent for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures.

Goods loaded for exports at Cái Mép-Thị Vải Port. — VNA/VNS Photo Hồng Đạt

Standard Chartered has revised its forecast for Việt Nam’s economic growth in 2025 to 7.5 per cent, up from its earlier projection of 6.1 per cent.

The bank also raised its 2026 growth forecast for the country from 6.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent.

The bank revised down its inflation forecasts slightly to 3.4 per cent for 2025 and 3.7 per cent for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures.

Việt Nam continues to strengthen its role in the global supply chain, supported by robust trade performance and deeper integration into global trade through multiple free trade agreements (FTAs).

Total export value reached US$42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7 per cent year-on-year, driven by strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (66.2 per cent), telephones (17.5 per cent), and machinery (11.6 per cent).

Imports also rose by 24.9 per cent to $39.8 billion, led by electronics and computer supplies (43.6 per cent) and machinery (33.6 per cent), signalling continued expansion in production and industrial capacity.

Việt Nam’s external position remains resilient, supported by robust trade and a resilient foreign exchange outlook. After being depleted amid US dollar strength prior to this year, FX reserves are likely to be rebuilt, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and a healthy trade performance.

Domestic credit growth has also accelerated, signalling continued economic recovery even without policy rate cuts. Credit growth is now above 15 per cent year-on-year, reflecting improving business confidence and rising finance demand. Lending growth remains robust, supported by favourable liquidity conditions and Government measures to stimulate growth.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a key growth driver. Disbursed FDI rose 8.5 per cent year-on-year ($18.8 billion) in the first nine months of 2025, while pledged FDI rose 15.2 per cent year-on-year ($28.5 billion). Standard Chartered economists expect the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5 per cent for the rest of 2025 and 2026, with accommodative conditions supporting investment and expansion.

Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Việt Nam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, said: "Việt Nam's resilience and adaptability are evidenced by its successful attraction of strong FDI and robust export growth, solidifying its strategic role in global supply chain diversification and pointing to strong prospects for continued economic expansion.”

The bank has kept its USD/VND forecast at 26,300 for 2025 and 26,750 for 2026. 

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