Việt Nam outlines three 2026 power supply scenarios amid growing electricity demand

Việt Nam outlines three 2026 power supply scenarios amid growing electricity demand

In the most extreme case, electricity demand increases by more than 15 per cent, driven by breakthrough economic performance and widespread severe weather conditions.

Workers of Vietnam Electricity checking the system. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting three electricity supply scenarios for 2026, with the most extreme forecasting electricity demand growth exceeding 15 per cent. — VNA/VNS Photo Huy Hùng

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting three electricity supply scenarios for 2026, with the most extreme forecasting electricity demand growth exceeding 15 per cent as the country anticipates surging power demand to fuel economic growth.

At a meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên urged preparations for next year's national electricity supply and grid operation plan to be sped up, stating that a strong economic growth target set to exceed 8 per cent from 2025 onward requires early and detailed power planning.

According to the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Việt Nam (ERAV), in the base scenario, electricity demand is projected to grow by 10 – 12 per cent, aligned with a GDP growth of 6.5 – 7 per cent under normal weather conditions. 

In another scenario, demand rises by 12-14 per cent, assuming GDP growth exceeds 7 per cent, together with prolonged heatwaves. 

In the most extreme case, electricity demand increases by more than 15 per cent, driven by breakthrough economic performance and widespread severe weather conditions.  

2025 power supply on track

At the meeting, Diên urged efforts to ensure adequate power supply for the remaining months of this year.

ERAV Director Phạm Nguyên Hùng said that Việt Nam produced an estimated 156.4 billion kWh in the first half of this year, increasing by 3 per cent year-on-year and meeting 45 per cent of the plan for the full year.

Peak national load hit 51.67MW on June 2, a 5.7 per cent increase year-on-year. Peak consumption in the northern region alone increased by 2,632MW to 26,495MW.

According to a report from the National Electricity System and Market Operation (NSMO), the system is forecast to generate and import around 331.4 billion kWh, up 7.39 per cent over 2024, though slightly below the full-year target. 

NSMO said that oil and LNG-fired power sources may be needed during evening peaks in the south, when solar power output drops.

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn, general director of Vietnam Electricity, urged coordination to speed up the implementation of grid expansion and energy infrastructure.

Vietnam Coal and Minerals Industrial Group (TKV) said it delivered 22.37 million tonnes of coal to power plants in the first quarter of this year, equivalent to 54.8 per cent of its contract volume, and plans to supply 19.23 million more tonnes in the second quarter. TKV said that it will maintain a high inventory for emergency cases. 

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