Economic think tank pegs GDP growth at 6.2 pct
Economic think tank pegs GDP growth at 6.2 pct
Vietnam’s GDP will grow at 6.2 percent this year in the most optimistic scenario, the Central Institute for Economic Management has forecast.
A person shops at a mobile food stall in Ho Chi Minh City amid the Covid-19 pandemic in July 2021. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran.
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Based on the assumption that the outbreak would be contained by August, it expected inflation to be 2.8 percent and export growth to be 18.3 percent and a trade surplus of $5.4 billion.
The economic growth forecast is lower than its previous forecast in January of 6.46 percent.
It explained that the Covid-19 outbreaks, especially the fourth wave which began in April, have had a major impact on recovery.
"This wave has spread to industrial parks and large economic centers which cause major difficulties to the economy," Nguyen Thi Hong Minh, head of CIEM, said Thursday.
Other factors to impact growth in the second half of the year would be public investment, digital transformation and the ability to take advantage of new free trade agreements, it said.
If the outbreak is not contained until October, growth could be just 5.9 percent, it warned.
Last year the GDP grew at 2.9 percent.
Lender HSBC recently cut the growth forecast for Vietnam for this year from 6.6 percent to 6.1 percent following the latest wave of Covid.
