Inflation below 4% feasible: Experts
Inflation below 4% feasible: Experts
Despite the adverse fluctuations of the global economy, Vietnam can achieve its target of keeping inflation below 4% this year, Vietnam News Agency reported, citing economic experts at a seminar, titled “Developments of the market, prices in Vietnam in 2018 and prospects for 2019,” held in Hanoi today, January 3.
Nguyen Ba Minh, rector of the Institute of Economics and Finance of the Academy of Finance, stated that the world’s economic growth last year was slower than in the previous year. Vietnam also faced multiple difficulties, such as the United States’ higher import duties on some Vietnamese products and the slow capital disbursement of public investment projects.
However, the world’s oil price plunged from US$70 to US$50 per barrel in the last two months, helping reduce the country’s inflation in December to 2.98% on year, said Nguyen Duc Do, vice rector of the Institute of Economics and Finance.
Inflation this month is likely to be below 3% on year since the Ministries of Industry and Trade and Finance have revised down fuel prices by VND500 per liter. The low inflation rate in the first month of the year will positively affect the average rate for the whole year, Do added.
In addition, pork prices may not increase this year, while pressure on the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Vietnam dong is forecast to be low as the United States’ economic growth was forecast to report a slowdown and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has entered the final phase of a roadmap to hike its interest rate. Therefore, the demand for U.S. dollars will be low.
Further, trade tensions between the United States and China will soon ease, remarked Do.
Meanwhile, Le Quoc Phuong from the Industry and Trade Information Center, under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated that the prices of products on the global market may rise, while the Fed has plans to increase its interest rate at least twice this year, which will increase the value of the U.S. dollar, placing pressure on inflation in Vietnam.
Also, the high GDP growth target and localities’ roadmaps for adjusting upward the prices of education and healthcare services are factors that could fuel inflation, Phuong remarked.
However, Phuong was still confident of meeting the target to keep inflation below 4% this year as the country has repeatedly reported a consumer price index of below 4% and core inflation of below 2% in recent years.
