ADB lifts growth prospect of VN to 6.7%
ADB lifts growth prospect of VN to 6.7%
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised Viet Nam’s growth prospect upward to 6.7 per cent in both 2017 and 2018 compared with earlier forecasts of 6.3 and 6.5 per cent, respectively.
This is part of ADB’s forecast on economic expansion of developing Asia, which showed the GDP of the first three quarters of 2017 in Viet Nam grew by 6.4 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in the same period of 2016.
“Agriculture recovered and grew by 2.8 per cent in the first nine months as drought eased in the Mekong Delta and the Central Highlands. Industry and construction remained strong despite drag from the mining and oil subsector, which contracted by 8.1 per cent in the first half of the year,” the report said.
ADB said the country’s manufacturing grew robustly, expanding by 12.8 per cent during the period, the highest rate of growth in the sector since 2011. Fourth quarter manufacturing growth, traditionally the sector’s strongest, is likely to exceed growth over the first three quarters. Driven by buoyant tourism and strong banking activity, services growth accelerated to 7.3 per cent from 6.7 per cent in the corresponding period in 2016.
In the report, ADB forecast that economic expansion in developing Asia will accelerate to 6 per cent in 2017 thanks to stronger than expected exports and domestic consumption. Excluding Asia’s newly industrialised economies, growth is now expected at 6.5 per cent this year.
Growth for Southeast Asia is picking up faster than earlier forecast with GDP set to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2017 and 2018, compared with September 2017 forecasts of 5 per cent and 5.1 per cent. The sub-region is benefiting from stronger investments and exports, with accelerating growth for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Infrastructure investment continued to play an important role in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Robust domestic demand—particularly private consumption and investment—will continue to support growth in the sub-region, according to the report.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook Update 2017 report, ADB upgraded its 2017 GDP outlook in the region by 0.1 percentage points in comparison with its September 2017 forecast, while its 2018 forecast remained unchanged at 5.8 per cent. Unexpectedly strong expansion in Central, East and Southeast Asia offset a downward adjustment in South Asia.
“Developing Asia’s growth momentum, supported by recovering exports, demonstrates that openness to trade remains an essential component of inclusive economic development,” Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB’s chief economist, said.
“Countries can further take advantage of the global recovery by investing in human capital and physical infrastructure that will help sustain growth over the long-term,” he added.
Combined growth for the major industrial economies has been revised upward to 2.2 per cent for 2017 and 2 per cent for 2018 due to robust domestic demand in the euro area, and in Japan due to private investment and net exports. Growth projections for the United States remain unchanged at 2.2 per cent in 2017 and 2.4 per cent in 2018.
