Lao economists optimistic over global economy
Lao economists optimistic over global economy
The export value of Lao goods to foreign markets is expected to see stable growth this year because the economies of the country's trading partners will continue to grow, according to the Lao National Economic Research Institute.
The institute recently unveiled the results of its research on trends in the global economy, in particular Laos' trading partners. Its objective was to provide a reference for economic policymakers so they can develop policies that will reflect the reality of internal and external conditions.
According to the research, the global economy is expected to grow at an average of 3.86 percent from 2011 to 2015.
The economies of developed nations will see 1.85 percent growth from 2011 to 2015, while the economies of developing Asia and Pacific nations will see 7.34 percent growth over the same period. The average growth rate of established Asean nations is expected to be 5.42 percent.
The institute highlights that global inflation will continue to decline, creating external favourable conditions for Laos to maintain strong economic growth over the next several years.
The global inflation rate will be 3.87 percent from 2011 to 2015. In developing Asia it will be 4.80 percent, while older Asean nations will experience inflation of 4.84 percent.
The export value of Lao goods to foreign markets is expected to benefit from the strong economic growth of its trading partners - China, Thailand, Vietnam and various European nations. These countries are also major foreign investors in Laos.
According to the Lao Economic Research Institute, economic growth in the Eurozone countries, which are among the major buyers of Lao garment products, will see 0.77 percent growth. In Thailand, a major buyer of Lao agricultural products and electricity, growth is expected to be 7.35 percent this year and is forecast to remain stable at above 4 percent until 2017.
Economic growth in Vietnam, another buyer of Lao agricultural products and minerals, is projected to be 7.23 percent this year and to remain above 7 percent until 2016. China's economy is forecast to grow at a rate of 8.79 percent this year and is expected to remain above 8 percent until 2017.
Laos' economy is expected to benefit from the country's newly acquired membership in the World Trade Organisation. This is expected to boost investor confidence in Laos, and in turn raise the value of Lao exports.
The export value of mineral products, which account for a large portion of Laos' total export value, is expected to be adversely affected by the low price of copper and gold this year. However, the price drop is not expected to have a big negative impact on Laos' mining industry and government revenue because production costs can be kept low, the institute says.
According to the World Bank, Laos' export value was on track to reach US$2,845 million in 2012 while the import value was on track to reach US$4,162 million, resulting in a trade deficit of US$1,317 million
vientiane times
